431,000 jobs, most from census workers temporarily employed. That's what beat the market down today. The Dow 9,931.97 -323.31 down 3.15% The Nasdaq Composite 2,219.17 -83.86 down 3.64% (the most of the three major indexes.) and the S&P 500 closed at 1,064.88 -37.95 smacked down 3.44%. The world is over.... Right? Wrong. The census workers are usually low income people who are most likely to spend their money.
*Light bulb* There will be a boost in consumption, if only for a quarter. The question is what's the trade?
What will the census workers buy? I think cellphones shoes and clothes. I'm being frank here, but honestly, they start giving census jobs first to welfare to work recipients.
They won't really need to buy food since they get food stamps on a card. So I think we may get an upside surprise in retail numbers. One of these retail numbers is going to pop this market, mark my words.
We have a Retail Sales number coming out June 11. The market is looking for 0.3% growth, the last number was 0.4%. I'd bet a dollar to a doughnut the number comes in at least 4% may be 4 and some change.
I know what your thinking because I thought it myself. Maybe I'm stretching for a catalyst, and this could be true, but 300,000 census workers is still 300,000 more people who will buy something on payday. 300,000 people with thee most pent up demand. Watch and see, until then watch the market, not T.V.
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